Some of my income is generated doing math analysis for individuals or gaming companies trying to introduce new games to the casinos. Although the gaming companies generally know the risks involved in such a venture, individuals usually do not. The purpose of this article is to inform the inexperienced game inventor of what they are in for.
In my experience, most casino game inventors are extremely optimistic about their chances of success. The perception of those new to the business is that casino management will fall all over themselves trying to get your game into their casino. What is closer to reality is that game inventors fall all over themselves trying to get their games into a casino. Also, the greater the level of confidence of a game inventor the worse his game generally is.
Trying to introduce a new game, whether machine or table game, to the Nevada casinos is a very expensive venture and the probability of ever showing the first cent in profit is very small. Even good games have a low probability of success, about 1% in my opinion. Of course every new game inventor thinks that his or own game is in that 1%, which is not realistic. Without knowing anything about it, I can predict that a new game idea is too complicated, too ridiculous, or is already taken.
The first major step in marketing a new casino game, at least in Nevada, is to get a casino to perform a field trial on it. What you are asking a casino to do is take out a profitable game, likely blackjack, and put in something that has never been proven to make a dime. Casino staff will have to be trained to deal the game and it will have to be monitored carefully by supervision. The casino will get to keep all profits the game makes and you will have to pay for all custom-made game equipment and signage. You also must pay $3000 for a permit from the Gaming Control Board, fill out lots of forms, and wait about a year for your application to be reviewed. Few casinos accept field trial games, and those that do get asked all the time. Despite the investment of thousands of dollars most new games never see the inside of a casino.
Unless you have connections in the business, it takes about $50,000 to market a new game past the trial. This $50,000 will be spent on licenses from the Nevada Gaming Control Board, patent attorneys, table cloth, signage, rule cards, game literature, gaming show and travel expenses, and a math analysis from someone like me. For a list of recommendations please visit Recommended Businesses for Casino Game Developers.
Even if you do get through the trial period phase, chances are your game will be played, but compared to the average game it will make about the same or less money. A frequent problem with new game is they attract recreational players who tend to bet small amounts. Meanwhile, the traditional games are more likely to attract experienced players who bet more. So the question isn't whether your game will make money, but whether it will make MORE money than whatever game is replaces. I have done math analysis on about 200 games and side bets for individuals trying to get into the U.S. market, and the number of games that have made it past the trial period and can be found at more than five casinos is zero, except games for large gaming companies like Shufflemaster.
For the low-budget game developer, there are other options. Taking the game to a rural jurisdiction outside of Nevada is the most common alternative to Nevada, preferably one with less competition like many Indian casinos, or a state that recently legalized gambling, like Washington State. However the feeling in Nevada is that in other parts of the country players will play anything and success elsewhere is not good evidence a game will make it in Las Vegas.
Even in the best case scenario that your game is a success, the larger gaming companies will parse all their numerous patents in search of anything similar. If they find anything similar, then they may proceed into trying to sue you into submission. Your choice may be to spend millions in legal expenses, or sell your game at a fire-sale price.
In conclusion marketing new casino games is a very, VERY, risky business. I hate to see private individuals invest a large portion of their savings into a new casino game, because I know the probability of them ever recouping that money is very low. This business is better suited for those who are experienced and are well financed. So please, consider yourself warned.
Recommended Reading
For further information on the business of marketing new games I recommend the following articles.
Links
Recommended Businesses for Casino Game Developers
Gaming Math.
Wizard of Odds.
Galaxy Gaming welcomes new game ideas. However I warn you that they have a "20-second rule", in which you must be able to explain the rules in 20 seconds or less.